I write about movies, therefore I am by law supposed to tell you who I think is going to win a toned-physique golden bald guy. This breaks a lot of the rules I roll by here, I don’t like doing things because it’s trendy and I don’t like discussing things if I am ill-informed. If I had to say how well I did at watching all the Oscar movies before the show, I’d say I’ve done a terrible, a real awful job. However, we like to have fun here, and I have a fun idea. I’ll have more details at the end, but here’s my 100% accurate genius that proves that when it comes to writing about movies, I’m the biggest genius around!
KNIVES OUT (Rian Johnson)
MARRIAGE STORY (Noah Baumbach)
1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD (Quentin Tarantino)
PARASITE (Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won)
Marriage Story. I mean c’mon Knives Out is a fine movie, but I don’t think the Academy is going to give the guy who came up with guilt vomiting a trophy for it. The Other films have other elements that are more praiseworthy and overall the sincerity of Marriage Story shines through. The Lighthouse is kind of a disappointing omission, that entire movie is a Chekhov’s gun and it’s tight script with such a unique dialect, that the Oscars dropped the ball not including it.
THE IRISHMAN (Steven Zaillian)
JOJO RABBIT (Taika Waititi)
JOKER (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
LITTLE WOMEN (Greta Gerwig)
THE TWO POPES (Anthony McCarten)
The Irishman could have been written by a robot that watched all of Scorsese’s movies and then tried to replicate them. Honestly, my mind is saying Greta Gerwig, but my gut kind of likes Waititi. I think the Oscars tend to favor drama over comedy, and Gerwig getting on stage would redeem from some of the feminist backlash. I’ve heard all good things about Little Women, and I’m still disappointed about Lady Bird so let’s go with it. Little Women.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
I almost want to go with TROS just because people will tell you that’s a great movie and outside of the glossy exterior that film has got little to no redeeming qualities, so that’s an achievement. When I look for precedents, I see The Curious Case of Benjamin Button making a case for The Irishman, and The Jungle Book making the case for Disney’s The Taxidermy. I have a good feeling it wins, but I refuse to have any celebration in Disney’s The Taxidermy winning an award or achievement. Photo-realism has been done before, de-aging to the pedigree and consistency of The Irishman, now that’s pushing the envelope.
The Irishman (Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson)
Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
Joker (Mark Bridges)
Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)
I like Jojo Rabbit here. All serious contenders but Jojo Rabbit has the most personality to it and is stylized beyond just recreation. Plus, they have the most size variation in their designs. JoJo Rabbit, I’m wrong but… I’m right.
Makeup and Hair:
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Bombshell. It just looked phenomenal and was really transformative, no complaints here.
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2
“Stand Up,” Harriet
I’m picking, “I’m Gonna Love Me Again”. I know a lot of people would be happy with some Rocketman love and there’s been 5 better songs in both the Toy Story and Frozen Franchise each so maybe those shouldn’t win.
Joker Hildur Guðnadóttir
Little Women Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story Randy Newman
1917 Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker John Williams
Interesting to nominate a score from the 70s for a current Oscar, don’t think it will wins but weird inclusion. I love Desplat, one of my favorites. However, I’m going with, “thank God I’m writing it and don’t have to butch her name” Hildur Guðnadóttir. It’s so foreboding and tense, it’s certainly unique to the genre and just the instruments themselves. Fingers-crossed, Joker.
The Irishman Bob Shaw and Regina Graves
Jojo Rabbit Ra Vincent and Nora Sopkova
1917 Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh
Parasite Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, and Cho Hee
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. These two lovely ladies are going to celebrate an absolutely incredible job and instead of these woke activist/journalists celebrating their accomplishment they’re going to bitch about Best Director some more. Nancy Haigh has one of the coolest resumes ever! Field of Dreams, Forrest Gump, Mars Attacks, The Truman Show, No Country for Old Men, Money Ball, and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. I know it’s not a headline that gains click or sells papers, but we’re part of the problem. We don’t respect below the line professionals enough. Hollywood is a copycat industry just like how the NFL is a copycat league. Right now, Women directors are Michael Vick a novelty, millions of dollars on the line you don’t trust novelties you trust what you see is working for everyone else. You know what made mobile Quarterbacks the norm. Teams valued offensive linemen, dynamic run schemes, and strong defenses to support them. Supposed “game managers” like Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes are now arguable the best in the league. Women directors can strive, but I think it’s by relinquishing the power of the director position and instead diversifying the burden of trust so that more involved get the glory and share in the responsibility.
Ford V Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
First let’s just address this so everyone knows,
Sound Editing: Assembly. They place all the sounds on the editing timeline. They decide when and how to implement ADR, foley, music and basically do the equivalent of a fine cut. Sound Editing decides what the sound is.
Sound Mixing: Think of a music studio sound board. Ironically enough they’re the ones who “edit the actual sound” in terms of adjusting the wave. They decide how the sound all gets mixed together and to what degree you can hear everything. The sound editors decides what kind of salad you are going to get, and the sound mixers decide the portions of each ingredient you get.
Ford v Ferrari Don Sylvester
Joker Alan Robert Murray
1917 Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Wylie Stateman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Matthew Wood, David Acord
Ford v Ferrari
Ford v Ferrari Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland
The Irishman Thelma Schoonmaker
Jojo Rabbit Tom Eagles
Joker Jeff Groth
Parasite Jinmo Yang
The Academy do like visual flair if Bohemian Rhapsody is anything to go by. I like Parasite here, I still need to see it but I know there’s some sort of shift and I’m guessing the editing might change up a bit and it looks sleek and clean from the trailer so I expect some interesting shot variation/shot duration to be edited together nicely.
Best International Film
Corpus Christi Jan Komasa
Honeyland Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
Les Miserables Ladj Ly
Pain and Glory Pedro Almodovar
Parasite Bong Joon Ho
The Equivalent of a Bingo free space…. Parasite.
Best Live Action Short Film:
Brotherhood Meryam Joobeur
Nefta Football Club Yves Piat
The Neighbors’ Window Marshall Curry
Saria Bryan Buckley
A Sister Delphine Girard
I feel that when it comes to short films, typically shorter is better. I’ve done my research and based on trailers and premises The Neighbors’ Window is very “Rear Window” and that’s fun but I think people will be dismissed a bit for that derivative quality. Brotherhood sounds poignant but I don’t see that film hitting a lull at some point. Personally, I love the sound of A Sister, I’m inticed by the voyeurism of putting yourself in the situation of both the 911 Operator and the victim who’s calling emergency services in front of her assailant it’s very thought provoking and can be exemplary of how to escape bad situations. I think this is one category for people to get political and while its set in Guatemala I think Saria has the pathos to really resonant with the current political context.
Best Documentary Short Subject:
In the Absence Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone Carol Dysinger
Life Overtakes Me Kristine Samuelson and John Haptas
St. Louis Superman Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
Walk Run Cha-Cha Laura Nix
First Life Overtakes Me is fascinatingly bizarre. I’m very skeptical, and it sounds like it depends heavily on pathos then informing us on the subject matter…6.5/10 on IMDb I don’t know how I’d feel about that winning. I’m told St. Louis superman and Walk Run Cha-Cha are the front runners, but I love the charm of Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone.
My choice is In the Absence which just sounds absolutely haunting, and it sounds like it’s a well composed documentary that more documents various aspects then trying to imbue values onto the audience.
Best Documentary Feature
American Factory Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar
The Cave Feras Fayyad
The Edge of Democracy Petra Costa
For Sama Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts
Honeyland Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
Obama is indirectly going to get an Oscar. It appears American Factory is the frontrunner, but I’m going to go with the Sundance darling, Honeyland… save the bees.
The Irishman Rodrigo Prieto
Joker Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse Jarin Blaschke
1917 Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Robert Richardson
Okay, The Lighthouse is a gorgeous looking film, that uses rich contrast to be truly unsettling. I think all the films earned their nominations, but Roger Deakins is spectacular and it’s looking like the odds are in his favor.
Animated Short Film
Dcera Daria Kashcheeva
Hair Love Matthew A. Cherry
Kitbull Rosana Sullivan
Memorable Bruno Collet
Sister Siqi Song
I’ve seen Kitbull and honestly wasn’t impressed. Cute but simple anti-animal cruelty message with cute storybook animation. Besides the fact that I can’t look at it without thing of “Dream Daddy: Dad Dating Sim” I actually am pulling for Hair Love. I think in a year were we tragically lost a beautiful father/daughter relationship it would be nice to see such a positive family depiction get some recognition. It’s unique but simple.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Dean DeBlois
I Lost My Body Jeremy Clapin
Klaus Sergio Pablos
Missing Link Chris Butler
Toy Story 4 Josh Cooley
Well all of these feel incredibly done before except for one. I don’t want Pixar’s admittance to not having any more good ideas for Toy Story to win an award. I thought of watching Klaus but when I watched the Netflix preview, I found the music choice laughably misplaced and I really don’t think it does anything to separate itself from being another Santa story outside of looking nice. How to Train Your Dragon was a nice bow-tie on the franchise but was so similar to the second one that it was kind of underwhelming. I hope I Lost My Body wins, probably won’t but I only really want to put that one down.
I Lost My Body
Martin Scorsese The Irishman
Todd Phillips Joker
Sam Mendes 1917
Quentin Tarantino Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho Parasite
It’s tearing me apart! Bong Joon Ho winning would be so cool, and well deserved. Tarantino and Scorsese are the greats and Todd Phillips has impressed us by already making it this far. I think Sam Mendes wins this though.
Kathy Bates Richard Jewell
Laura Dern Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh Little Women
Margot Robbie Bombshell
I think Scarlett Johansson has a good chance, but I’m holding out on her performing as that tree to earn her the hardware. I think Laura Dern wins, it’s a substantial role and Dern brings a certain pedigree performance to an interesting character.
Tom Hanks A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins The Two Popes
Al Pacino The Irishman
Joe Pesci The Irishman
Brad Pitt Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Brad Pitt is infectious and is maybe even outshines DiCaprio let alone the other competition who could maybe have won a different year.
Cynthia Erivo Harriet
Scarlett Johansson Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan Little Women
Charlize Theron Bombshell
Renee Zellweger Judy
I’ve made some interesting choices, so I can’t afford to get cute here. Renee Zellweger is the favorite and it seems like the huge sell of Judy so I’m on board the hype train.
Antonio Banderas Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix Joker
Jonathan Pryce The Two Popes
I’ve made some interesting choices, but I’m tempted to get a little frisky here. I think everyone is sleeping on Jonathan Pryce who arguable gives a performance of a lifetime but in a sanitary depiction of a film with low attention. It doesn’t make sense for Joker to get that many nominations and fail to receive its biggest lock of the night. Phoenix deserves an Oscar already and maybe his victory will inspire the blockbuster genres to be open to more venturous projects that can appeal to the critics and the masses. Joaquin Phoenix wins.
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
I’ve been debating this and honestly, I don’t know. 1917 seems like a marvelous spectacle, yet so dry creatively. I mean it’s called 1917 for pete’s sake, might has been called ‘Obligatory Oscar Bait War Movie’ and At least that one uses words. Jojo Rabbit isn’t called 1944, 1917 seems unapologetically rudimentary in terms of creativity or risk in storytelling. Parasite seems truly unique and innovative, but can it break the language barrier after Roma failed to? Parasite would also be a modern story one that represents a contemporary period instead of trying to be a recreation of the past.
However, I think the movie that maybe enjoyable panders to the most folks in terms of being bold and daring yet nostalgic and self-admiring is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. It has 10 nominees, but in more valued categories like actors and screenplay than 1917 which should do well in technical categories and eclipsed by the Joker which I just don’t see it being universally admired by the Academy. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will win it’s the best at being the whole package and does a fantastic job of representing cinema then and the movies of now.
K’s Oscar Party
So, there you have it, I the smartest and best movie critic on the internet have just honored you with my unrivaled insight. What’s that, you think you could do better? Okay, jeez you don’t have to use such strong language. Fine, how about I put my money were my mouth is. I’ll give $5 (US) to whoever has the most accurate Oscar predictions. Sorry, I don’t have the YouTube money to slap around, but still $5 goes a long way in the freelance world and I’m not asking you to put into the pot so what do you have to lose?
So some rules and guidelines:
- Every category that I did is worth 1 point, I don’t care if you haven’t seen every short doc, take a gamble and hope you’re right or you’re just weakening your odds.
- Send it to me…somehow. You could just write a blog post and link me to it, or post it in the comments of this post. My Twitter DMs are open, and I have a contact page so you can shoot an email to:firstname.lastname@example.org. Whatever works for you.
- I won’t accept submissions from strangers, we don’t have to be best friends… BUT DON’T BE A STRANGER. I don’t care follow if you my blog or Twitter, or Instagram before you submit and I won’t consider you a stranger but I don’t know, I just want to know who wins my own gauntlet not a friend of a friend of a friend’s cousin.
- There will only be (1) payout. I’m giving only $5 out, tiebreakers will be decided by a random number generator raffle available to all max score participates.
- I expect maybe three people to actually want to participate, but I’m open to letting as much people in on the action that want to be but just expect maybe not an instantaneous announcement of a winner if the participation rate is high. I am just one letter.
Alrighty. I’m honestly just trying this out because the Anibloggers are always building this sense of community with different events, and awards, and uplifting one another and even the book people do different blogathons and special topics together and just why the hell do we not have that? I guess you gotta be the change you want to see, WordPress has tricked me into thinking I’m the 8th recommended site when you search “movies”, so why not me. (anime folks, I love ya and I do consider y’all family so while I’m trying to unify more film people with this, feel free to also try and steal my money).
That’s it folks, could you be the one to outsmart K and take his money? I guess you’ll just have to try it and I’ll see you, at THE OSCARS!